Steel Mills Accelerate Restocking, Iron Ore Prices Fluctuate Upward [SMM Commentary]

Published: Mar 14, 2025 16:49

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Today, Dalian iron ore futures fluctuated upward. The most-traded I2505 contract finally closed at 794 yuan/mt, up 2.32% for the day. Traders actively sold goods, while steel mills remained cautious and purchased as needed. The market transaction atmosphere was average. Mainstream transaction prices rose by 10-15 yuan/mt compared to yesterday. This week, apart from a decline in port arrivals, the accelerated restocking pace of steel mills and a significant increase in port pick-up volume, with a larger growth margin, were the main reasons for destocking. Looking ahead, pig iron production continues to increase, coupled with growing downstream demand. The overall demand in the industry chain is improving, providing strong support for ore prices. In the short term, ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating slightly upward.

Today, iron ore futures fluctuated upward. The most-traded I2505 contract finally closed at 794 yuan/mt, up 2.32% for the day. Traders actively sold cargoes, while steel mills remained cautious, purchasing as needed. Market transaction sentiment was average. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were around 790-795 yuan/mt, up 10-15 yuan/mt from yesterday. In Tangshan, PB fines transaction prices were around 800 yuan/mt, also up 10-15 yuan/mt from yesterday. Today, total inventory at 35 ports monitored by SMM stood at 141.17 million mt, down 1.79 million mt WoW but up 2.03 million mt YoY. The daily average port pick-up volume of imported ore was 2.968 million mt, up 85,000 mt WoW and 90,000 mt YoY. This week, apart from a decline in arrivals, the accelerated restocking pace by steel mills and the significant increase in port pick-up volume were the main reasons for the expanded destocking. Looking ahead, with pig iron production continuing to rise and downstream demand increasing, overall demand in the industry chain is improving, providing strong support for ore prices. In the short term, ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating slightly upward.

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